Number of Smokers
Out of the 10 countries with the highest number of smokers in the world, Indonesia ranks third after China and India.
Ten Countries with the World’s Highest Number of Smokers based on Smoking Prevalence among People Aged >10 Years (million), 2015
Note: The number of smokers in Indonesia is based on smoking prevalence among people aged >10 years (29.3%) as provided in Basic Health Research (Riskesdas) 2013
Source: The Tobacco Atlas Sixth Edition, 2018 (https://tobaccoatlas.org/topic/prevalence/)
The statistical data on Indonesia as shown in the diagram above is based on the nationwide Riskesdas (Basic Health Survey) in 2013 on smoking prevalence among people aged > 10 years at 29.3%, or 53.7 million smokers in absolute numbers. Meanwhile, smoking prevalence among people aged > 15 years as provided in 2013 Riskesdas is 36.3%, or 64.9 million smokers (further explained in the following figure).
Number of Cigarettes Smoked
In 2006, Indonesia is the fifth leading consumer of cigarettes after China, US, Russia and Japan. In 2018, Indonesia ranked second after China following a declining trend in cigarette consumption in the US, Russia and Japan.
Top Five Countries Where People Smoke the Most (in billion sticks) 2006-2018
Five Consumers of Cigarettes, 2006-2018 | Cigarette Consumption Trends in Indonesia 2006 – 2018 |
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Source: The Tobacco Atlas Sixth Edition, 2018 (https://tobaccoatlas.org/topic/consumption/)
Smoking Prevalence in Indonesia
Based on the 2018 Riskesdas, smoking prevalence among males and females was 33.8%, an increase from 32.8% in 2016. This rising trend was due to an almost twofold increase in female smoking prevalence from 2.5% to 4.8%. . For nearly a decade (2007-2016), male smoking prevalence hovered above 65% before falling to 63% in 2018. This means that during the last decade, 2 out of 3 adult males were active smokers.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged >15 Years, 2007-2018
Source: Riskesdas 2007, 2010, 2013, 2018 and Sirkesnas 2016
Note: Laki-laki = Male, Perempuan = Female
From 2007 to 2018, smoking prevalence among people aged > 15 years fell from 34.2% to 33.8%. This declining trend does not reflect a surge in the absolute number of smokers aged > 15 years from 56 million to 65.7 million people due to a growth in the population aged > 15 years from 163.6 million[1] to 194.5 million people in the same period.[2]
Despite the drop in smoking prevalence among people aged > 15 years from 36.3% in 2013 to 33.8% in 2018, the absolute number of smokers increased from 64.9 million in 2013 to 65.7 million in 2018 as a result of a growth in the population aged > 15 years in 2013-2018.[3]
[1] BPS, Population Projections for Indonesia by Province, 2005 – 2015, (Jakarta, 2007)
[2] BAPPENAS, BPS, United Nations Population Fund. Population Projection for Indonesia 2010-2035
[3] Ibid
Smoking Prevalence by Age Group
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged > 15 Years by Age Group, 2013 and 2018
Source: Riskesdas 2018
Smoking Prevalence in Urban and Rural Areas
In 2007-2018, adult smoking prevalence in rural areas showed a slight increase from 35.4% to 36.6%. This was also the case for urban areas where prevalence rose from 30% to 31.6%.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged > 15 Years by Area and Sex in Indonesia, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2018
Source: Riskesdas 2007*, 2010*, 2013, Sirkenas 2016, Riskesdas 2018
Smoking Prevalence by Level of Educational Attainment
Based on Riskesdas data in 2007-2018, people without a formal education, or who had incomplete or complete primary education consistently had a higher prevalence of tobacco use than those with a university or college degree. Smoking prevalence is correlated with the level of educational attainment.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged > 15 Years by Level of Educational Attainment, Sex and Area, 2018
Source: Riskesdas 2018
Smoking Prevalence by Income Level
In 2001-2018, there was no significant difference between smoking prevalence in the poorest (Q1) and the richest (Q5) quintiles as well as between other income groups, except in 2013. In 2013, smoking prevalence in the poorest population (Q1) was much higher (43.8%) compared to the richest population (Q5) at 29.4%.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged >15 Years by Income Group, Indonesia, 2001-2018
Source: SKRT 2001, Susenas 2004, Riskesdas 2007, 2010, 2013, Susenas 2015, 2016, 2017, Riskesdas 2018
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged >15 Years by Income Group, Indonesia, 2001-2018
Source: SKRT 2001, Susenas 2004, Riskesdas 2007, 2010, 2013, Susenas 2015, 2016, 2017, Riskesdas 2018
Note: the use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Smoking Prevalence by Province
Based on the 2018 Susenas (National Socio-Economic Survey), Gorontalo has the highest smoking prevalence (36.56%), while the lowest prevalence (25.8%) can be found in Yogyakarta. There is no significant difference in smoking prevalence between other provinces.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged >15 Years by Province, Indonesia, 2018
Source: Susenas 2018
Note: the use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Smoking Initiation
The 2018 Riskesdas shows that 77.7% of first-time smokers in Indonesia started smoking before reaching the age of 19. The smoking initiation rate in children aged 5-9 years has increased from 0.1% in 2007 to 2.5% in 2018. There has been a steady rise in smoking initiation rate among children aged 10-14 years. This demonstrates how the tobacco industry has been successful in luring new customers among teenagers.
Source: Riskesdas 2007-2018
Note: Tahun = Years old The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Average Age of Smoking Initiation
Average Age (year) of Smoking Initiation among People Aged > 10 Years, Indonesia, 2007, 2013, 2018
Source: Riskesdas 2007, 2013, and 2018
Note: Laki-laki = Male, Perempuan = Female
The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
In 2007-2018, the average age of smoking initiation tend to be younger from 17.6 to 16.8 years. The average age for men to start smoking was 17.3 years in 2007 and 16.7 years in 2018. Women on the other hand, first try smoking at a later age compared to men, an average of 22.9 years in 2007 and 22.6 years in 2018.
Adolescent Smoking
Smoking Prevalence among Adolescents Aged 10-18 Years
Smoking prevalence among adolescents aged 10-18 years has increased from 7.2% in 2013 to 8.8% in 2016, and rose further to 9.1% in 2018. This means that Indonesia is further away from achieving its 2019 RPJMN (National Medium-Term Development Plan) target of 5.4%.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged 10–18 Years, 2013, 2016, 2018
One of the targets in the 2020-2024 RPJMN is to reduce smoking prevalence among people aged 10-18 years from 9.1% to 8.7%. According to Bappenas projections, failure to curb adolescent smoking would increase smoking prevalence in children aged 10-18 years from 9.1% in 2018 to 16% in 2030, or from 3.3 million to 6.8 million people in 2030.
Projected Smoking Prevalence among People Aged 10-18 Years, 2019-2030
Source: Riskesdas 2018 and Bappenas 2020 Projections
Note: If tobacco control measures are inadequate
The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Smoking Prevalence among Adolescents Aged 10-14 and 15-19 Years
Smoking prevalence among teenagers aged 15–19 years rose threefold from 7.1% to 20.8%, while in the younger age group (10-14 years), it leapt as much as sixteenfold from 0.3% to 4.9%.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among People Aged 10-14 and 15-19 Years, Indonesia, 1995-2018
Source: Susenas 1995, SKRT 2001, Susenas 2004, Riskesdas 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2018
Note: The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Prevalence of E-Cigarette Use among Teenagers Aged 10-18 Years
The prevalence of e-cigarette use in adolescents aged 10-18 years has surged almost 10 times from 1.2% in 2016 to 10.9% in 2018. This is a much higher increase than the prevalence of adult e-cigarette users in the same period from 2% to 2.7%. Based on the 2011 Global Adults Tobacco Survey (GATS), the prevalence of e-cigarette use among adults was 0.3%.
Prevalence of E-Cigarette Use among People Aged 10-18 Years, 2016-2018 | Prevalence of E-Cigarette Use among People Aged > 15 Years, 2011-2018 |
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Smoking Prevalence among Adolescents Aged 13-15 Years
Smoking prevalence among children aged 13-15 years in Indonesia decreased slightly from 21.2% in 2009 to 18.8% in 2019. However, the absolute number of smokers continued to rise due to the population growth in Indonesia. Teen smokers worldwide, including in Indonesia tend to underestimate the powerful effect of nicotine addiction, thinking that they can quit whenever they want. The 2019 GYTS shows that only 27.8% of teens believed that it will be difficult to quit once they start smoking.
Teenagers can easily access cigarettes, which they can buy anywhere at affordable prices. According to the 2019 GYTS, 71.3% of teenagers buy cigarettes in single sticks. The price of loose cigarettes varies from Rp1,000-1,500/stick (17%), Rp1,000/stick (5%), Rp1,500-2,000/stick (4.2%), and Rp2,000/2,500 stick (1.4%). As many as 76.6% of teenagers buy cigarettes in shops, stalls, street vendors or kiosks. Under Government Regulation No. 109/2012, it is illegal to sell cigarettes to anyone under the age of 18, yet 60% of teens reported not being prevented from buying despite being underage.
Smoking Prevalence (%) among Adolescents Aged 13-15 Years, Indonesia, 2009-2019
Source: GYTS 2009, 2014, 2019
Absolute Number of Teen Smokers by Age Group
The absolute number of teen smokers is calculated according to the 2010-2035 Indonesia Population Projections for specific age groups. The absolute numbers converted from smoking prevalence are calculated for both current and first-time smokers.
By mid-May 2020, BPS (National Statistical Office) data on the size of the youth population are available for the 10-14 years, 15-19 years and 10-18 years age groups. No data are available for size of the population aged 13-15 years.
Number of Current Adolescent Smokers by Age Group, 2013-2018
Source: * Riskesdas 2013 & 2018: prevalence by age group
**BPS: Population projections by age group, 2010 – 2035
Number of First-Time Adolescent Smokers by Age Group, 2013-2018
Source: * Riskesdas 2013 & 2018: prevalence by age group
**BPS: Population projections by age group, 2010 – 2035
The smoking initiation rate by age group in 2013-2018 shows a shift towards the younger age group in terms of the number of first-time smokers. The table above presents the rising absolute number of beginners aged 10-14 years from 4 million to 5.3 million, while the number of novice smokers aged 15-19 years decreased by 600 thousand from 12.1 million to 11.5 million.
Market Share in Indonesia
Indonesia with its large population, weak tobacco control policies, low excise rates, cheap labor, and lack of public awareness has made it an attractive market to multinational tobacco companies that now dominate the tobacco market in Indonesia.
Without any significant regulatory barriers, tobacco investors are rapidly expanding their business in Indonesia by acquiring shares in leading tobacco companies. In March 2005, Philip Morris International (PMI) acquired a 40% stake in PT HM Sampoerna. PMI’s share ownership in PT HM Sampoerna has now risen to 92.5%.[1] This was followed by British American Tobacco’s (BAT)[2] acquisition of an 85% stake in PT Bentoel in June 2009.[3] The growing presence of foreign companies in Indonesia’s tobacco industry did not stop there. In 2011, KT&G[4] bought 60% shares in PT Trisakti Purwosari Makmur that produces the Esse, Bohem Cigar, and Panamas cigarette brands. Japan Tobacco Inc (JTI) later entered the fray by purchasing 100% shares in two Gudang Garam subsidiaries, PT Surya Mustika Nusantara and PT Karyadibya Mahardika.[5]
The tobacco market in Indonesia is dominated by four large companies, i.e., Philip Morris International (PMI)-HM Sampoerna Tbk, Gudang Garam, Djarum and Bentoel. These companies combined account for 87% of the domestic market share. Sampoerna-Philip Morris alone controls a third of the Indonesian tobacco market at 32.5% in 2019.
Source: Global Data. Cigarettes in Indonesia, 2020
In 2012-2016, HM Sampoerna/Philip Morris International (PMI) held the largest slice of the tobacco market in Indonesia.
Tobacco Market Share (%) by Sales Volume, 2011-2019[1]
Source: Global Data. Cigarettes in Indonesia, 2020
[1] Global Data. Cigarettes in Indonesia, 2020. Report Code. CG0690MR. Published January 2020.
Note: The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
[1] Philip Morris International, <https://www.pmi.com/markets/indonesia/id> [accessed 20 July 2020].
[2] Liputan6, ‘Putera Sampoerna Akuisisi Langkah Terbaik’, Liputan6.com, 21 March 2005, <https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/97974/putera-sampoerna-akuisisi-langkah-terbaik> [accessed 17 December 2018].
[3] Detik Finance, ‘Akuisisi Bentoel, BAT Incar Pasar Kretek Indonesia’, Detik.com, 17 June 2009, <https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-1149220/akuisisi-bentoel-bat-incar-pasar-kretek-indonesia> [accessed 17 December 2018]
[4] Nurmayanti & Safrezi Fitra, ‘KT&G Corp Beli 60% Saham Perusahaan Rokok Lokal’, Indonesia Finance Today, 21 July 2011, <http://www.indonesiafinancetoday.com/read/11578/KTG-Corp-Beli-60-Saham-Perusahaan-Rokok-Lokal> [accessed 17 December 2018].
[5] Adhitya Himawan, ‘Dua Anak Perusahaan Gudang Garam Diakuisisi JTI’, Suara.com, 9 August 2017, <https://www.suara.com/bisnis/2017/08/09/142236/dua-anak-perusahaan-gudang-garam-diakuisisi-jti> [accessed 17 December 2018].
Cigarette Production in Indonesia
In 2011-2018, cigarette production fluctuated, where production was higher in 2018 than in 2011. An increase in production occurred from 2011 (317 billion sticks) to 2013 (345 billion sticks), and reached its peak in 2015 at 348 billion sticks. It then decreased to 332 billion sticks in 2018 before surging by 7.3% to 356.5 billion cigarettes in 2019 where there was no increase in excise tariff for that particular year. Under Finance Ministerial Regulation No. 152/PMK.010/2019, there will be no increase in tobacco excise in 2019, however the government will maintain its target of increasing annual tobacco tax revenue from Rp152.9 trillion in 2018 to Rp158.8 trillion in 2019 (see Chapter VII item 7.5.3). The actual tobacco tax revenue in 2019, which amounted to Rp164.9 trillion (103% above target), was derived from an increase in cigarette production by 7.3%.
From 2011 to 2019, there was a shift in production from hand-rolled kretek cigarettes (SKT) to machine-made kretek cigarettes (SKM), where labor-intensive SKT production decreased from 30.4% to 19.4%, while SKM production increased from 63.8% to 76.3%. This reflects the industry’s response to a demand shift from hand-rolled to machine-made kretek cigarettes. Machine-made white cigarette production also fell from 5.9% to 4.2%.
Total Cigarette Production Trends (billion sticks), 2011-2019
Source: Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia
Note: The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Cigarette Production Trends by Cigarette Type (billion sticks), 2012-2017[1]
Source: Ministry of Finance, Financial Notes and RAPBN for 2012-2017
[1] Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, Financing Public Health Program; Taxation Policy on Tobacco Product, Power Point Presentation. 2019
[1] Ministry of Finance, Financial Notes and RAPBN for 2012-2017.
Tobacco Market Share Trends (%) by Cigarette Type, 2011-2019[1]
Source: Ministry of Finance, Republic of Indonesia
Note: The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Nearly one third (32%) of components that make up machine-made white cigarettes (SPM) are imported tobacco. Out of the three types of cigarettes, SKT uses local components the most (94%), consisting of locally produced tobacco and clove. As it is labor-intensive by nature, the SKT industry usually serves as the basis for determining excise hikes, despite low production due to low demand and modest excise tax revenue.
Share of Local vs. Imported Components by Cigarette Type11
Source: Ministry of Finance, Republic of Indonesia
Number of Tobacco Manufacturers
According to data from the Fiscal Policy Office of the Ministry of Finance, there were 1,664 cigarette manufacturers in 2011, but only 770 factories were left in 2018.
Ironically, cigarette production in the same year increased by 4.4% from 318 billion to 332 billion cigarettes. The shrinking number of tobacco manufacturers by 54% in 2011-2018 had no effect on cigarette production, which in fact increased due to the mechanization of large cigarette producers.
Number of Tobacco Manufacturers, Cigarette Production, and Actual Excise Tax Revenue, 2011-2018[1]
Source: Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia
Although 894 cigarette companies went out of business, excise tax revenues increased doubled from Rp73.3 trillion to Rp152.9 trillion due to an increase in production volume by 4.4%.
Trends in Tobacco Manufacturers, Production and Excise Tax Revenue, 2011-201812
Source: Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia
Note: The use of comma in the picture indicating the decimal number
Produksi (Milyar batang) = Production (billion sticks)
Realisasi Cukai (Rp triliun) = Actual Excise Revenue (IDR trillion)
Jumlah Perusahaan (unit) = Number of Manufacturers (unit)
[1] Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia, Financing Public Health Program and Taxation Policy on Tobacco Product, Power Point Presentation, 2019.
Tobacco Farming Trends
For almost three decades (1990-2019) of rapid cigarette production growth, tobacco farm acreage in Indonesia had in fact decreased from 235,866 ha in 1990 to 201,909 ha in 2017. Tobacco farm acreage in 2019 is estimated to be 204,562 ha. The share of tobacco farm acreage to total agricultural land declined from 0.52% in 1990 to 0.32% in 2017.
Tobacco is a seasonal crop. Land for seasonal farming is called arable land, which is smaller in size compared to total agricultural area. Tobacco acreage as a percentage of arable land also decreased from 1.16% in 1990 to 0.77% in 2017. This indicates that increasingly less arable land is being allocated for tobacco farming.
Share of Tobacco Acreage to Arable Land and Total Agricultural Area, 1990-2019
Note: Arable land is used for seasonal farming, *provisional data, **estimates, n.a = not available
Source: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL for data on arable land and agricultural areas, and “Indonesia Plantation Statistics 2017-2019: Tobacco, Ministry of Agricultural” for tobacco farm acreage
Ninety-five percent (95%) of tobacco farm acreage are concentrated in four provinces, i.e., East Java (51.6%), Central Java (20.9%) West Nusa Tenggara (16.5%) and West Java (6%). The rest can be found in the provinces of Aceh, South Sulawesi and others.
In the three tobacco production hubs— Central Java, East Java and West Nusa Tenggara—in Indonesia, thirteen types of tobacco are mainly grown, i.e., a) Asepan, b) Rajang, c) Garangan, d) Virginia, e) Vorstenland, f) Vike, g) Besuki Na Oogst (NO), h) Lumajang, i) Kasturi, j) Paiton, k) Madura, l) White Burley and m) Java (Ministry of Agriculture, 2017).
Tobacco farming in Indonesia can be grouped into two types of tobacco, i.e., Voor-Oogst and Na-Oogst. Voor-Oogst refers to tobacco that is usually grown in the rainy season and harvested in the dry season. Na-Oogst on the other hand is grown in the dry season and harvested in the rainy season. Voor-Oogst tobacco includes the Virginia, Lumajang, white burley and local varieties. Meanwhile, Na-Oogst tobacco includes the Besuki NO and Vorstenlanden varieties. Most of the tobacco grown in Indonesia falls under the Voor-Oogst category.
Share of (%) Tobacco Farm Acreage by Province, 2019
Source: Indonesia Plantation Statistics 2017-2019: Tobacco, Ministry of Agriculture
Tobacco Leaf Production
Global tobacco leaf production has fallen from 7.5 million tons in 2012 to 6.5 million tons in 2017. The four countries that continue to dominate global tobacco production are China, Brazil, India, and the United States. Tobacco production of the four countries combined in 2017 was 4.4 million tons or 68% of world production, which has decreased compared to 2012 at 5.4 million tons or 71% of global production.
Top Ten Tobacco Producing Countries, 2012 and 2017
Source: FAOStat, 2019, <http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC> [accessed 2 January 2020]
In 2012, the 260,800 tons of tobacco produced in Indonesia accounted for only 3.4% of world production. Indonesia was ranked 5th, but fell one spot to 6th place in 2017 when production fell to 152 thousand tons or 2.3% of global production. Zimbabwe managed to boost its production, rising from 6th rank in 2012 to 5th place in 2017.
For more than 40 years, there has been no significant change in the proportion of land dedicated to tobacco farming at around 200 thousand ha. Tobacco acreage was 198 thousand ha in 1975 and 202 thousand ha in 2017, and projected to be 204 thousand ha in 2019. For 44 years from 1995 to 2019, tobacco production only increased from 95 thousand tons to 183 thousand tons.
Tobacco Acreage and Production, 1975-2019
Note: *Provisional data, **Estimates
Source: Indonesia Plantation Statistics 2017-2019: Tobacco, Ministry of Agriculture
National tobacco leaf production grew from 164 thousand tons in 2013 to 183 thousand tons in 2019. The contribution of the three largest tobacco producing provinces—East Java, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and Central Java—has increased from 143 thousand tons (87% of total national production) in 2013 to 164 thousand tons (90% of total national production) in 2019. The provinces of West Java, North Sumatra, South Sulawesi, and Bali contributed less than 10% to total national tobacco production. The production share of other provinces ranged between 3.7% and 3.9 %.
Tobacco Production by Province, 2013 and 2019
Source: Indonesia Plantation Statistics 2013-2015 and 2017-2019: Tobacco, Ministry of Finance.
Tobacco Production by Province (%), 2019
Source: Indonesia Plantation Statistics 2017-2019: Tobacco, Ministry of Agriculture.